My Stocks Trading Review ( Sabana Reit / SembCorp Marine / Asian Pay TV /HPH/ OUE- HT )


In my previous blog post , I have highlighted some stocks I added into my portfolio and same time also few stocks I ceased to own.  

Allow me to do some “reflection “ or trading review of these stocks ,which I think is important to know our returns in every investment we made.



Know your ROI :

Why is it important to measure our return on any investment ?


Choosing investments is just the beginning of your work as an investor. As time goes by, you'll need to monitor the performance of these investments to see how they are working together in your portfolio to help you progress toward your goals. Generally speaking, progress means that your portfolio value is steadily increasing, even though one or more of your investments may have lost value.

When we started our investment journey, we will always set a target & goal and do bench-marking against Indexes , Super-Investors or even bloggers ! ( hahaha )

When it comes to calculating annualized investment returns, all things are not equal and differences between calculation methods can produce striking dissimilarities over time. Also , they are many methods to calculate our returns on any investment e.g NPV , CAGR , IRR and XIRR .

I think XIRR is a more powerful function in Excel for calculating annualized yield for a schedule of cash flows occurring at irregular periods.

 I have calculated the XIRR for these stocks (including dividend received ) .  

Why Using XIRR in measuring your return on investment ?  ( Excel : =XIRR vs =IRR )

This link ( here )  will give you more clearer explanation on why I am using XIRR instead of IRR or CAGR .



Here is the verdict of my trade  ….


Sembcorp Marine :



In hoping for the quick rebound of Oil price , I went into this counter in Dec 2014 after seeing it drop from all time high of more than $5 …. The verdict is having net lost of more than $-12K !! the others is just the side story …on all the O&G industry . L  This is really a “ catastrophic trade “ for me ! 

Experience learn with paying “ high course fees “ … let’s move on , not every trade / investment we made will make money .

I am still holding some Sembcorp Industry & Keppel Corp  as another proxy stocks for O&G industry which I thin is more diversify in their business. 


Asian Pay TV 






Started to invest in this counter in 2013 in view of attractive and high dividend yield and turn out to be a value trap as the dividend pay out is unsustainable …. I guess most of the reader would have knew the story already … but along the way , I have collected $52K of dividend , although with net lost of $-21,693 on buy and sell but with adding the dividend , it turn out to have a 6.6 % of XIRR . Not so bad as it beat the CPF SA interest rate ! haha

Bought into this counter again recently after seeing the price has been beaten down so much … I think there will be some value at this level ( I might be wrong !! ) . 


HPH




This is another so call “value trap” stock and hated by most of value investors.My XIRR return was just a meagre 1.9% , can't even beat the CPF OA interest rate . Verdict = FAIL !! 

Try my luck !! taking small position on this stock again..


OUE-HT




Buying into the story of “shopping heaven “ along the Orchard Road … but the verdict is … barely breakeven after 3 years of investing. Verdict = Fail !! XIRR even worse than FD rate !


CDW





I made a quick buck in 2015’s trading with just few days trading and re-enter this counter again in early 2016 ,,, end up with sad story here as price dropped after “ share consolidation “ ,,, you may find a good analysis from fellow blogger SG TTI on this account . ( here ) and  (here) .

I didn’t calculate the XIRR as it shown a very high % of return since the investment period is rather short.


Sabana 





This is rather long trade since I have invested in this counter since 2011 and done few buy and sell along the way.  I have made some money in early trade as I sold some at $1.1X , $1.2x and $1.3x in 2012 and 2013 with some profit. Started to sell and reduce my exposure on this counter from end 2013 till April 2016 where I have completely get out of this counter by Feb 2016.

Total Investment P/L = $ -5,253 while dividend collected = $78,507 and end up with Net profit of $73,253 . ( XIRR = 9.2% , not bad !! ) .

I think I am really lucky to have exited this counter before the price tumble and free fall after the announcement of right issue.


Warning !! Dangerous !! Watch Out !!



Recent trade on Sabana-Reit already incur paper lost of $ -1890 ( at current price of $0.345 ) , as mentioned before , this is going to be a very “ dangerous and highly speculative trade”  not base on fundamental”. 

Will the miracle of “ mean reverting “ happen to this counter ? It may or may not !! stay tuned for the eventual update .

< Please read the Disclaimer : all stocks mentioned above is just for illustration purposes and not a call to buy or sell , please do your own due diligent prior acting on this information .>

The message of this blog post is not try to just showing the P/L or XIRR of  trade I have done before but to show the important of keeping track of our investment return .

Keeping the record of all your trade , dividend received will be able to let us know our ROI for any investment and of course at the end of the day vs the initial target or goals we have set before.


Cheers !! happy investing !!



If contrarian strategies work so well, why aren’t they more widely followed?…
It is not enough to have winning methods, we must be able to use them.
It sounds almost simplistic, but it isn’t.
by David Dreman 


Comments

  1. Thanks for sharing.
    For aptt,I emailed the investor relations asking about the impact on renewal of ALL their licenses which are expiring on 2017 and 2018 ...
    Also regarding if the unbundling of 100 channels have been enforced by the regulator and it's impact....Disappointingly no answer ...

    At least Sabana answered ..

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi SGDivudends
    Thanks for the info...that's bad for APTT ....:-(
    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi STE
    Great post once again!
    Thanks for the shoutout...
    What you've illustrated though, in this post, is how to use XIRR to calculate your returns for any single stock that you've bought.
    It's time weighted by using XIRR.
    But in terms of calculating overall portfolio returns, this doesn't take into account the time value of cash that's not vested, so it'll exaggerate your returns and make it higher than it seems. Thus it's not that accurate to compare it against benchmarks like STI ETF or some funds.
    I can see from your published actions, that you really put your "mean reversion" theory into practice with great results!

    Cheers
    TTI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi TTI,
      Yah !indeed, XIRR is more appropriate for individual stock (project ) with periodicals cash flow movement...not meant for portfolio or Index performance measurement...
      Yap...i am move on " market cycle " type of investment...i am more happy to see crisis..where is time to take advantage on market irrationality as what happened in 1997 n 2008....some of the REIT i bought during that time is sitting with high 20% of XIRR if i am going to dispose it now...:-) , but i think your Dutech is really fantastic return in such short periodof time ....bravo!!
      Cheers!!

      Delete
  4. Hi STE

    I am quite surprised you made positive xirr for aptt and sabana. Im also recently in the queue for sabana for the 1st time ever in my life. I hope to have it good when i look back hopefully next time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. B,
      i am kinda surprised you are in the q for Sabana. Most investors are avoiding it with a one-foot pole.
      other than the rights issue , are there any catalyst?
      their current acquisitions dont seem to be accretive too.
      since you are involved in the reits industry, can you enlighten us on your thoughts? or maybe a blog post =)

      Delete
  5. Hi B,
    May be because of some positive trade and accumulated dividend which make me to have +ve xirr ob Sabana n APPT...yah !! Buying Sabana will be very speculative in nature at this point of time as the fundamental doesn't look good...it need courage to take this risk and of course must be a calculated one..
    Cheers 👍👍😀😀

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi STE,

    Thanks for sharing the insights

    On APPT and Sabana, I noted that some of the selling were carried out after buying in a short time frame. In these cases, I suspected the mean reversion has yet to take place, is this correct? But you are able to take decisive decision to cut, hence I would like to ask what contributed to the selling decision. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi WY,
      Thanks for the comments,yah! You are right,sometimes I did trade in very short period of time,,,selling could be quite emotional and many reasons behind it ,,,,may due to " impulsive trade" like the one I did during the US Presidential Election,,,which I have blog about it ,,, selling could also due to fundamental change or after reading news on that particular stock ,,,in most case ,,, after I sold ,,the price will go up ,, hahaha
      Selling before " mean reverting " is my mistake like the one for DBS , GLP and Hong Kong Land ,,, :-(
      I also hope and would like to reduce my overall trade ,,, as I think I trade too much and increase my cost eventually..
      Cheers !

      Delete
  7. It pays to invest early in the game like any "scam". Nice reward in Sabana !

    ReplyDelete
  8. I am a big fan of XIRR. Measured Portfolio level XIRR and Individual Stocks.
    One of the best way to measure performance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Cory ,
      Yah ! You are right ,,, for any Ponzi scheme,,if we have the early move and exited before it crash ,,, we could be the winner ,,, but the problem is the " greedy" that kill.
      Yup,,, I am considered as very lucky to have exited Sabana before the right announcement,,,, :-)
      Yes,,, the XIRR really a good tool to capture the annualized return if we have consistent cash flow for any particular period,,,,
      Cheers !!

      Delete

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