Tuesday, 28 February 2017

How Much Luck in Investing Success? My Experience in 2008/09



We all know well that market are efficient (most of the time) and many active management fund outperform because of “luck “ and not skill.  You may find out more about this topic in my previous blog on 


 Success in Investing : Skill or Luck ?  (here ).

 As most of the investment professional think, it is hard to admit that luck plays as significant a role as skill in their investment success. That's not to say skill is unimportant but betting on continued success doesn't work well in investing as in other fields.

Friday, 24 February 2017

Saving : Monitoring your Expenses or Behavioral

    
<Image Credit: Haikudeck.com>
  Personal Cash Flow Management


I have seen many blogs written about monitoring the expenses and some some blogger's recommendation of apps which could monitor our expenses in detail .

Frankly, I didn’t monitor my expenses in such manner and I “ agak-agak”  know how much I spent monthly on those fix items and some major items yearly such as holidays & staycations , insurance , home appliance ( like recently changing my TV and refrigerator after using it for many years ) , no tax since no active income etc…

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Stock Investing May Not be For Everyone


First of all , allow me to quote below from a legendary investor ( some may call him great speculators and some may not agree with that as the way he took his own life in 1940 ) : Jesse Livermore

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid , the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotion balance or for the get-rich quick adventurer. They will die poor .”

**remark: I don’t think the "stupid" is a proper word there as the “smart” investors also fail in most of investing or speculating ( like famous case of LTCM -click ).

I have two books about Jesse Livermore , one is " How To Trade in Stocks" written shortly before his death in 1940. How to Trade Stocks offered traders their first account of his famously tight-lipped operator's trading system. Another one is " Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre written in 1923.

The book continue to be the most sought-after and most-loved book ever writeen on the subject of trading and speculation. In this novel, LeFevre brilliantly describes the life and times of the book's protagonist. Larry Livingston , a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore, one of the history's most famous traders. Livermore never considered himself as an investor; he was a speculator. He didn't mind being long or short, he just wanted to be correct. His approach was to figure out what the path of least resistance was and then go with the flow , he understand well about “market psychology “.

You may find more about him on below :

From Investopedia “The Greatest Investors: Jesse L. Livermore(here )

From Wikipedia “Jesse Lauriston Livermore (here)

Monday, 20 February 2017

Investment Using SRS fund - My Experience

Image Credit : Sgfinance.sg


Many articles have been written on SRS Account and it’s pro and con. You may find few good blogs and summary as below :

SUPPLEMENTARY RETIREMENT SCHEME (‘SRS’) ACCOUNT from HeartlandbOY  (here )

Is the Supplementary Retirement Scheme a Waste of Your Time and Money? From Money$mart.sg (here)

Why it makes sense to contribute to the SRS account (to a certain extent) from moneydigest.sg (here )

While some may not agree on useful or merit of contributing money into SRS account on reason of “long lock-in “ period and others .

Why I Am Not Too Keen On The Supplementary Retirement Scheme from My 15 Hour Work Week (here)

And of course the famous AK on his blog on “ How AK uses his SRS money and why ? (here)

Monday, 13 February 2017

Housing Choice link to Retirement Comfort ! ( STE photos sharing )

MAS Urges Households To Stay Financially Prudent

Much been written about “Housing choice vs Retirement comfort “ , another types of Cs in our financial planning.

Life is full of “choices “ , one may choose to “stay single or marry “, to “have kids or be DINKs “ , to “climb the corporate ladder or be a freelancer” , to “save more or spend more “ , to “save or invest “ , to “buy a health insurance or take the risk ( bo chap)”……and the list goes on.

“In particular, households should consider their housing choices carefully, as retirement adequacy could be compromised should households overstretch their finances to purchase more expensive housing.”

Source: “Stay prudent, be cautious with property purchases, MAS tells Singaporeans” 


Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Privatization : The Good or The Bad ?



Is Privatization Good for Investors ?

You may find two articles/news of privatization in today’s The Business Time ( one is Auric Pacific and the other is Healthway Medical ) which is quite rare and one might be pondering why so many privatization is going on recently in Singapore’s business context.

If you may recall , from SMRT , NOL , Sim Lian, OSIM , CM Pacific, Select Group ,Super Group, Biosensors  ,Eu Yan Sang , Tiger Airways , Lantrovision , Interplex , Otto Marine , etc,,,, and on the pipeline  are ARA Asset Management , Vard Holding .

Monday, 6 February 2017

Sabana REIT : A Principal- Agent Problem ( dilemma ) ?

If you are investing in S-Reit as income investors , you will surely have heard this REIT before which is in the limelight and take centre stage in recent investing news.

No introduction require for this hot topic , with many highlighted issues such as decreasing DPU , NAV , Occupancy rate , NPI etc … which translated to below :





With above chart , easily , some investors might be sitting with capital loss of more than 50% with such price trend.

Sunday, 5 February 2017

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds or The Wisdom of Crowds ?

  These are two of my favorite books :

In 2004 , James Surowiecki ( an American Journalist ) published a book called “ The Wisdom of Crowds “ which talked about the aggregation of information in group , resulting in decisions that often better than it could have been made by any single member of the group.

The Wisdom of Crowds is generally traced back to an observation by Charles Darwin’s cousin Francis Galton in 1907. Galton pointed out that the average of all the entries in a ‘guess the weight of the ox’ competition at a country fair was amazingly accurate – beating not only most of the individual guesses but also those of alleged cattle experts. This is the essence of the wisdom of crowds: their average judgement converges on the right solution.


Friday, 3 February 2017

立春 : To Deposit money or Buy share ?



You may notice a very long queue at bank today while people are queuing to deposit their money into the bank , reason being today is the day of "  立春"     in Chinese customs ...

Well, believe it or not , it represent " ceaseless of income " throughout the year and also, to invite good luck , peoples always wear in red , orange , yellow or gold color during this day.



What exactly is " 立春" ?