Friday, 30 September 2016

Patterns , Patterns , Patterns !


Did you see any patterns in below charts /images ? Can you relate this to Investing ?





Thursday, 29 September 2016

Few Important Mathematical Concept in Investing



Stumbling upon this blog post from one of the famous Financial Blogger from HKG (取之有道)

Other than the famous “Rule of 72” which is well known by most of value investors , below are few more mathematical concept which I think is also rather important for anyone who is involving in stock investing.



Concept explained : Rule of 72 ( by Investopedia )

The 'Rule of 72' is a simplified way to determine how long an investment will take to double, given a fixed annual rate of interest. By dividing 72 by the annual rate of return, investors can get a rough estimate of how many years it will take for the initial investment to duplicate itself.

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Success in Investing : Skill or Luck ?

<Edited with additional info and video clip >

Investment Success : Skill or Luck ?


We always attribute our success in life or any aspect in life ( e.g career development /doing business / investing ) to our skill or performance but does “luck” has any place in these successful events.

If we think that skill ( talent ) play a very important roles in investing ,, then you may find that some very talented or intelligent people fail in investing ( e.g Newton ) , and if you think that investing is purely on luck , then we may have puzzle to explain the success of great investors like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynn and others in beating the markets for multiple years .

Success in Investing : Skill or Luck ?

<Edited with additional info and video clip >

Investment Success : Skill or Luck ?


We always attribute our success in life or any aspect in life ( e.g career development /doing business / investing ) to our skill or performance but does “luck” has any place in these successful events.

If we think that skill ( talent ) play a very important roles in investing ,, then you may find that some very talented or intelligent people fail in investing ( e.g Newton ) , and if you think that investing is purely on luck , then we may have puzzle to explain the success of great investors like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynn and others in beating the markets for multiple years .

Saturday, 24 September 2016

Sell Everything before Market Crash !

Will there be another market crash in 2017 ?


The unlucky 7


Whenever there is year ending with 7 , the stock market will collapse and have crisis.
For example, the name for the 1987 stock market crisis is Black Monday. Interest parity arbitrage trading and currency war fueled the 

Asian Crisis in 1997. It involves borrowing a cheap currency with low yields and investing in a stable currency with higher yields to earn spread income, known as positive carry. Hence the name, carry trades.

Thursday, 22 September 2016

Why There is NO Unit Trusts ( Mutual Fund ) in My Portfolio




I guess most investors also having experience of buying unit trusts (aka mutual fund) or may be having unit trust in their portfolio at certain point of their investing life. 

Depending on situation, some may have bitter experience and few lucky one may have made money from their investment in unit trusts.



Monday, 19 September 2016

Why The Wrong question is being asked in Investing !


Forecasting or predicting the market movement



Sometimes I have been asked by friends on how will the market or certain stocks perform in coming months or what will be the direction of index moving towards in next year or so. 


<Image credit: factsanddetails.com>
Even in every investment seminars , one may notice that the most question people like to ask to those investment “ Gurus “ will be “ how do you think the prospect of STI index in 20XX ? or What do you think about the performance of Bank / O&G / property sector in coming months ?


Friday, 16 September 2016

"Lies, damned lies, statistics ! ” How this may influence your decision making in Investing ?


How to Lie with statistics !




As investors , we have been bombarded by news and statistics every minutes and seconds , as we know well, some of these news been exaggerated and statistics or figures used also questionable .


 We need to understand the figure behind these statistics and how is it derived to ensure that we have not been lied by statistics. 

“ How to Lie with statistics “ is a fascinating and short book ( only 122 pages ) . Although this book is written in 1954 , but the contents & principles still very much relevant and just as valid in today’s context  (perhaps even more so, as it's so easy to acquire statistics due to our current technology) .

Darrell Huff gives people the tools to talk back to statistics.

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival ! ( STE Photos sharing )


祝大家“ 中秋节快乐!” 

No posting about investing today , would like to wish all my friends and readers a very happy  " Mid-Autumn Festival "  and enjoy your gathering & bonding with your loved one & family members .

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

What If Everyone only invested in Index ETF ?


what if ?



This is a fascinating and interesting book by Randall Munroe , a former NASA roboticist with a degree in Physics and also the author of xkcd:volume 0 ( a stick-figure webcomic ).


Munroe get thousands of questions submitted by readers and he answers a modest subset of those that not only pique his interest but are amusing and offer the potential to use real science to explore concepts, the world around us, and day-to-day mysteries of life and the universe.



Saturday, 10 September 2016

Saving vs Investing for Retirement : Which is more important ?


Saving vs Investing :



Everyone wants to be the genius investor who would beat the market and turn a small amount of cash into a fortune.


 We continuously search for “ multi-bagger “ in our investment portfolio ,unfortunately it's pretty difficult to do that and hard to achieve “Alpha “ by most of retail investors.



Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Dividend vs Share Buyback : Which is better ?


Dividend vs Share Buyback



Why US market is trading upward even as investors big and small are selling ?


According from an article from Fortune , most people assume what has kept the market afloat this year after sinking 11% at the start of the year was a mixture of better news out of China, oil prices stabilizing, and indications that the Fed won’t raise rates as much as thought. But the real thing buoying the market could be something else: Stock buybacks.

Monday, 5 September 2016

The Greatest Gambler's Fallacy


What is the 'Gambler's Fallacy'




The gambler's fallacy is when an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.


I'm a "Speculator " !

Yes, I’m a “ speculator “ , is really hard to differentiate and draw a dividing line between “speculator and investors “ as both words being used interchangeable from time to time ,depending on the situation one were in.


Sometimes I noticed that people buying certain stock in anticipating the price will move up soon ,, buy when price dropped eventually , he suddenly became an “investor “ that claiming to hold the stock for long term. Hence we say in Chinese : 投资 投机 只是一线之差



Thursday, 1 September 2016

My Investment Strategy : 3 Ts 3 Ms ( part 3)



孟子曰:天时不如地利,地利不如人和


According to Mencius studies , the “人和 “ (or People’s Harmonization ) is the most important part in any war game or battle , same apply for investment , I think this is the most difficult and challenging  part , yet the most vital to ensure success of our investing in stocks.


In The Art of War (孙子兵法) , Sun Tzu , a Chinese military philosopher and strategist in the 6th century BC , he mentioned :

知己知彼,百战百胜